Emergent Genius

Image: Illustration by Nick Higgins

Where do great ideas come from?and how do we recognize their significance when they appear?

Danny Hillis, Applied Minds co-founder and a Scientific American adviser, and I were discussing these questions recently as we prepared for a talk in late October at the Compass Summit (compass-summit.com). ?Ideas are a product of society,? an emergent phenomenon, Hillis told me, ?which are almost inevitable.? That?s why, he said, our admiration for individuals who have come up with such ideas is ?almost giving too much credit.? The idea itself is not enough. A lot of people in a society will have a given notion, he explained. Maybe only 1,000 will try to sketch it out. ?Then 100 will try to make something, and 10 of those might actually make something practical. One or two of those might be on the level of an Edison or Tesla.?

In many ways, Hillis and I share a mission of identifying those ideas that just might work. His company, of course, is involved in developing them. As for the magazine and our Web site?s role? ?The interesting thing about Scientific American is it lets you understand those ideas,? he added.

We have both watched with interest recent sweeping trends in the idea machine: how interdisciplinary research is a growing area of focus and the rising force of ?big data? and increasing computing power. Those topics would be part of our on-stage Compass Summit conversation, and they also underpin this issue?s special look at innovation, the third annual ?World Changing Ideas.? The section features 10 out-of-the-lab concepts with the possibility to scale in a practical way.

I?m particularly taken by ?The Machine That Would Predict the Future,? by David Weinberger.. The story covers the work of Dirk Helbing, a physicist and chair of sociology at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich. Helbing has proposed a large-scale computing program that would attempt to model global-scale systems and so ?would effectively serve as the world?s crystal ball.?

Perhaps you, like me, will feel forcefully reminded of Isaac Asimov?s Hari Seldon, the ?psychohistorian? whose pattern-predicting math drove the famous Foundation science-fiction series. Asimov, a long-time Scientific American subscriber himself, read the magazine to keep up with science. Increasingly, it feels as if the reverse is also true.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=8e2d325a08ece8a625035bdf0beca05e

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Players reject NBA's offer, begin to disband union

Surrounded by NBA basketball players, Executive Director of the National Basketball Players Association Billy Hunter, right, speaks to the media while Players Association president Derek Fisher listens during a news conference after a meeting of the players' union in New York, Monday, Nov. 14, 2011. The NBA players rejected the league's latest offer and have begun the process to disband the union. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Surrounded by NBA basketball players, Executive Director of the National Basketball Players Association Billy Hunter, right, speaks to the media while Players Association president Derek Fisher listens during a news conference after a meeting of the players' union in New York, Monday, Nov. 14, 2011. The NBA players rejected the league's latest offer and have begun the process to disband the union. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

NBA Players Association president Derek Fisher speaks during a news conference after a meeting of the players' union in New York, Monday, Nov. 14, 2011. The NBA players rejected the league's latest offer and have begun the process to disband the union. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Surrounded by NBA basketball players, Executive Director of the National Basketball Players Association Billy Hunter, center, and NBA Players Association president Derek Fisher, second from left, speak to the media during a news conference after a meeting of the players' union in New York, Monday, Nov. 14, 2011. The NBA players rejected the league's latest offer and have begun the process to disband the union. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Surrounded by NBA players, Players Association president Derek Fisher, center, speaks during a news conference after a meeting of the players' union in New York, Monday, Nov. 14, 2011. The NBA players rejected the league's latest offer and have begun the process to disband the union. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Surrounded by NBA players, including New York Knicks' Chauncy Billups, left, and Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook, right, NBA Players Association president Derek Fisher speaks during a news conference after a meeting of the players' union in New York, Monday, Nov. 14, 2011. The NBA players rejected the league's latest offer and have begun the process to disband the union. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

NEW YORK (AP) ? NBA players rejected the league's latest offer Monday and began disbanding the union, likely jeopardizing the season.

"We're prepared to file this antitrust action against the NBA," union executive director Billy Hunter said. "That's the best situation where players can get their due process."

And that's a tragedy as far as NBA Commissioner David Stern is concerned.

"It looks like the 2011-12 season is really in jeopardy," Stern said in an interview aired on ESPN. "It's just a big charade. To do it now, the union is ratcheting up I guess to see if they can scare the NBA owners or something. That's not happening."

Hunter said players were not prepared to agree to Stern's ultimatum to accept the current proposal or face a worse one, saying they thought it was "extremely unfair." And they're aware what this battle might cost them.

"We understand the consequences of potentially missing the season; we understand the consequences that players could potentially face if things don't go our way, but it's a risk worth taking," union vice president Maurice Evans said. "It's the right move to do."

But it's risky. The league already has filed a pre-emptive lawsuit seeking to prove the lockout is legal and contends that without a union that collectively bargained them, the players' guaranteed contracts could legally be voided.

During oral arguments on Nov. 2, the NBA asked U.S. District Judge Paul Gardephe to decide the legality of its lockout, but he was reluctant to wade into the league's labor mess. Gardephe has yet to issue a ruling.

Stern, who is a lawyer, had urged players to take the deal on the table, saying it's the best the NBA could offer and advised that decertification is not a winning strategy.

Players ignored that warning, choosing instead to dissolve its union, giving them a chance to win several billion dollars in triple damages in an antitrust lawsuit.

"This is the best decision for the players," union president Derek Fisher said. "I want to reiterate that point, that a lot of individual players have a lot of things personally at stake in terms of their careers and where they stand. And right now they feel it's important ? we all feel it's important to all our players, not just the ones in this room, but our entire group ? that we not only try to get a deal done for today but for the body of NBA players that will come into this league over the next decade and beyond."

Fisher, flanked at a press conference by dozens of players including Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony, said the decision was unanimous. But there were surely players throughout the league who would have preferred union leadership put the proposal to a vote of the full membership instead.

Hunter said the NBPA was in the process of converting to a trade association and that all players will be represented in a class-action suit against the NBA by attorneys Jeffrey Kessler and David Boies ? who were on opposite sides of the NFL labor dispute, Kessler working for the players, Boise for the league.

"The fact that the two biggest legal adversaries in the NFL players dispute over the NFL lockout both agree that the NBA lockout is now illegal and subject to triple damages speaks for itself," Kessler said in an email to The Associated Press. "I am delighted to work together with David Boies on behalf of the NBA players."

Stern was not impressed with his legal adversaries.

"Mr. Kessler got his way, and we're about to go into the nuclear winter of the NBA," he told ESPN. "If I were a player ... I would be wondering what it is that Billy Hunter just did."

The sides still can negotiate during the legal process, so players didn't want to write off the season just yet.

"I don't want to make any assumptions," union VP Keyon Dooling said. "I believe we'll continue to try to get a deal done or let this process play out. I don't know what to expect from this process."

Hunter said the NBPA's "notice of disclaimer" was filed with Stern's office about an hour before the news conference announcing the move.

Hunter said the bargaining process had "completely broken down." Players and owners have been talking for some two years but couldn't reach a deal, with players feeling the league's desires to improve competitive balance would hurt their free agency options.

And beyond that, the owners' desire for a 50-50 split of basketball-related income, after players were guaranteed 57 percent under the old deal, meant players were shifting at least $280 million per year to the owners.

"This deal could have been done. It should have been done," Hunter said. "We've given and given and given, and they got to the place where they just reached for too much and the players decided to push back."

Over the weekend, Stern said he would not cancel the season this week.

Regardless, damage already has been done, in many ways.

Financially, both sides have lost hundreds of millions because of the games missed and the countless more that will be wiped out before play resumes. Team employees are losing money, and in some cases, jobs. And both the NBA and NBPA eventually must regain the loyalty of an angered fan base that wonders how the league reached this low point after such a strong 2010-11 season.

The proposal rejected by the players called for a 72-game season beginning Dec. 15.

On Sunday, the league made a very public push on the positives of the deal ? hosting a 90-minute twitter chat to answer questions from players and fans, posting a YouTube video to explain the key points and sending a memo from Stern to players urging them to "study our proposal carefully, and to accept it as a fair compromise of the issues between us."

In the memo, posted on the league's website, Stern highlighted points of the deal and asked players to focus on the compromises the league made during negotiations, such as dropping its demands for a hard salary cap, non-guaranteed contracts and salary rollbacks.

Union officials repeatedly have said the system issues are perhaps more important to them than the split of basketball-related income, but owners say they need fundamental changes in both to allow for a chance to profit and to ensure more competitive balance throughout the league.

The previous CBA expired at the end of the day June 30. Despite a series of meetings in June, there was never much hope of a deal before that deadline, with owners wanting significant changes after saying they lost $300 million last season and hundreds of millions more in each year of the old agreement, which was ratified in 2005.

Owners wanted to keep more of the league's nearly $4 billion in basketball revenues. And they sought a system where even the smallest-market clubs could compete, believing the current system would always favor the teams who could spend the most.

The NBA's last work stoppage reduced the 1998-99 season to 50 games. Monday marked the 137th day of the lockout; the NFL lockout lasted 136 days.

In its labor battle, NFL players tried to get the courts to overturn the lockout and let players return to work. Although a Minnesota judge initially ruled in favor of the players, that ruling was put on hold by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

"Given the rulings that came down in the NFL case, which are not binding in the 2nd circuit but would be influential, right now the owners are not in a bad spot," said antitrust attorney David Scupp of Constantine Cannon in New York City. "It could very well be that the players have an uphill battle toward getting that lockout enjoined. If they can do that, then it might swing things in their favor."

But time is not on anyone's side.

"If you look at what happened with the NFL case, that whole legal battle surrounding the temporary injunction was resolved relatively quickly, and it still took a few months," Scupp said. "There's not a few months to spare this time around."

___

AP Sports Writers Rachel Cohen in New York and Jon Krawczynski in Minneapolis contributed to this report.

___

Follow Brian Mahoney on Twitter: twitter.com/Briancmahoney

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2011-11-14-NBA%20Labor/id-592b7aa85b2f48f4888a5986c0de8254

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Cardinals set to hire Matheny as manager (AP)

ST. LOUIS ? The St. Louis Cardinals said they will announce the hiring of Mike Matheny as manager during a news conference Monday.

Matheny, a former St. Louis catcher will replace the retired Tony La Russa.

La Russa stepped down after leading the team to the World Series title.

The 40-year-old Matheny was a minor league instructor with the Cardinals and has no managing experience. He played for St. Louis from 2000-04 and won three Gold Gloves. He won another with San Francisco.

Matheny's playing career blossomed after he signed a one-year free-agent deal to be the backup catcher in St. Louis. A career .239 hitter, Matheny did enough defensively to earn a starting job.

Matheny was one of six men the Cardinals interviewed to replace La Russa.

They also talked to Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg, longtime Cardinals third-base coach Jose Oquendo, former Boston manager Terry Francona, Triple-A manager Chris Maloney, and Chicago White Sox coach Joe McEwing.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/sports/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111113/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bbn_cardinals_matheny

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Pacific rim leaders mull ways to fend off EU woes (AP)

HONOLULU ? A push to build a Pacific free trade bloc gained ground Friday with Japan's decision to join negotiations, as Asia-Pacific leaders converging on Hawaii for an annual summit mulled ways to prevent Europe's crisis from derailing the global recovery.

The weekend meeting of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which brings together leaders from Russia to Chile, is focused on creating jobs and business through nuts-and-bolts measures such as investment in infrastructure and reforms aimed at providing more access to financing for the poor.

Such moves are gaining urgency, with the European Union warning of a possible "deep and prolonged recession" next year as the debt crisis that has engulfed Ireland, Portugal and Greece shows signs of spiraling out of control. A European recession would be felt sharply in the U.S., where growth is already anemic, and in Asia, which relies on Europe as a big market for its cars, clothing, consumer electronics and other exports.

"In the coming 12 months there is quite a strong likelihood that things will go worse," Hong Kong's chief executive, Donald Tsang, told a gathering of business leaders on the sidelines of the APEC meetings. "Global performance will be dragged down and then there will be an awakening, I hope," he said.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in opening a meeting of foreign and economic ministers that many forces outside the Pacific region will have an impact on it. "Global trends and world events have given us a full and formidable agenda," she said. "And the stakes are high for all of us."

As host of the annual summit, the U.S. has made expanding trade, promoting green growth and deepening cooperation on regulation and standards to help dismantle barriers to trade and nurture faster growth.

"We've even created an unofficial slogan: 'Get Stuff Done," Clinton said.

The U.S. also is hoping to garner support for a Pacific free trade pact that many APEC members see as a building block for a free trade area that encompasses all of Asia and the Pacific, covering half the world's commerce and two-fifths of its trade.

That goal advanced Friday with Japan's announcement that it will seek to join the bloc, called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, despite strong opposition from farmers fearful of exposure to greater foreign competition.

The Pacific trade pact, known as the TPP, currently includes Chile, New Zealand, Brunei and Singapore ? all relatively small economies. The U.S., Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Peru are negotiating to join. The participation of Japan, the world's third-largest economy, would vastly expand its reach.

At the same time they are working toward a broader agreement, countries continue to forge separate free-trade agreements. On Friday, Vietnam and Chile were to due to sign a free trade agreement on the sidelines of the APEC meetings.

The U.S. recently clinched long-sought free trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama ? agreements that if ratified will bring to 20 the number of countries that have free trade agreements with the U.S.

In Honolulu, Washington was keeping up pressure on China to commit to faster trade liberalization and to freeing its currency, which U.S. officials say remains undervalued even though it has gained substantially against the U.S. dollar in recent years.

A statement by APEC finance ministers released Thursday included a call for exchange rate flexibility. Treasury Department officials said China's willingness to back such a commitment ? both at the Group of 20 meeting in Cannes last week and in Honolulu this week ? could encourage similar moves by other Asia-Pacific economies.

But Beijing's apparent openness to move faster on its currency policy was not matched by similar support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which earlier this week a senior official in Beijing described as "overly ambitious."

Overall, given APEC's lack of negotiating power ? all decisions are by consensus ? prospects for major changes are slim. But over the years the group's incremental efforts have helped build support for closer economic ties and freer trade.

Clinton said that by agreeing on something as rudimentary as shared safety standards for televisions, countries in the region saw exports of TVs jump by nearly half in three years.

___

Associated Press writer Jaymes Song contributed to this report.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/asia/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111112/ap_on_re_as/apec

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Looking for a partner in crime again!

Hello y'all! :) I'm Ashley and I prefer to be called by my real name over my user name now that a lot of people already call me by my real name on her somewhat! :)

I am here to look for a role play partner because lately I have been feeling like doing more of these.

A few things first though!

- I am a girl and usually I like to play a girl as well.
- I will double but only if you do as well.
- I am open for just about anything except science fiction and a few other things.
- My main area of expertise is Realistic and then fantasy.
- I like some romance usually twisted in the plot but I don't like the plot focused on Romance.
- Also another thing about Romance I hate when people use love at first sight because really it's no realistic.
- I will NOT do a guy x guy rp but I am open to a girl x girl pairing but depends on the plot and I have to be really interested for it to work.
- I don't mine if you swear just please don't swear and curse like a sailor and also I will never go past kissing for romance.

Now for pairings...
Blue = I like it
Purple = I love it
* = I might have an idea for it.

Realistic pairings
City boy x cowgirl
Arranged marriage
Rival x rival
Bad boy x good girl
Rich person x poor person

Movie/ book pairs

Madhatter x Alice
Alice x Tom (From the book series the last apprentice by Joesph Delaney)
Harry Potter a Next gen pair
Peter pan x Wendy

I would love you for life if we did Alice x Tom (Only if you read a few books in the series though.)

Fantasy pairs

Werewolf x Hunter
Witch x Hunter
Werewolf x human
Witch x human
Fairy x human
Doll x human *

Feel free to suggest anything oh and I prefer to do threads for rps nine times out of ten! :)

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Philippines grounds bomber planes after crash (AP)

MANILA, Philippines ? Philippine officials say the air force has grounded its OV-10 bomber planes after one crashed but added the decision will not hamper counterinsurgency strikes.

Air Force chief Lt. Gen. Oscar Rabena says he ordered the grounding of the turboprop warplanes while investigators try to determine what caused one to crash Wednesday while trying to land at an air base in southern Zamboanga city. The two pilots managed to eject but were injured.

Military spokesman Col. Arnulfo Marcelo Burgos said Thursday the air force has other aircraft for battling insurgents. The underfunded military has 12 OV-10s it acquired from the U.S. in 1992.

The OV-10s have been used recently to assault Muslim rebels and guard Manila's claims in disputed South China Sea areas.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/asia/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111110/ap_on_re_as/as_philippines_bomber_planes

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Keystone XL pipeline delayed: Does that help Obama?

Keystone XL pipeline critics said it threatened a vital aquifer. The Obama administration agreed Thursday, postponing a decision ? probably until after the 2012 election ? to look at other routes.?

The Obama administration announced Thursday that it is delaying the Keystone XL pipeline, a Canadian-backed project that promised to create thousands of American jobs, generate billions in annual state tax revenues, and increase Canadian crude oil imports to America by as much as a quarter billion barrels per year.

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Critics said the pipeline's planned route from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico threatened?the massive Ogallala aquifer, a vital underground source of drinking and irrigation water that stretches from South Dakota to Texas. They also?questioned the State Department's vetting process.

While the project?s promised benefits seem to make its eventual go-ahead virtually certain,?delaying it would rescue President Obama from having to make a politically difficult decision a year before he stands for reelection.

He faced the unenviable choice of alienating environmentalists or giving ammunition to critics who say he is not doing enough to create US jobs. The State Department will now look for an alternative route for the pipeline across a sensitive portion of Nebraska ? a process that is expected to carry beyond the November 2012 elections.

In a statement Thursday, Obama stressed the importance of ?strengthening our nation?s energy security? while addressing both the environmental and procedural concerns raised by critics.

?Because this permit decision could affect the health and safety of the American people as well as the environment, and because a number of concerns have been raised through a public process, we should take the time to ensure that all questions are properly addressed and all the potential impacts are properly understood,? Obama said. ?The final decision should be guided by an open, transparent process that is informed by the best available science.?

The Keystone XL project is essentially a 1,900-mile extension of an existing Canadian-operated pipeline. The current Keystone pipeline stretches 1,850 miles from Alberta to Illinois and went into operation in 2010. The $7 billion project would create of the largest oil pipeline in North America and?was to be completed by 2013.

According to the pipeline operator, TransCanada, the pipeline extension is designed to bring an additional 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the tar sands of Alberta, the largest crude reserves in North America, across America?s heartland to refineries in Houston and Port Arthur, Texas.

The pipeline project would have created tens of thousands of construction and related jobs, TransCanada estimated. The completed pipeline would have injected $5 billion in tax revenues each year for the six states it traverses.

But?Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman (R), citing the risk to the Ogallala aquifer, had asked Obama to block the pipeline. He said he would support the project if the pipeline is rerouted to avoid the aquifer.

In a recent visit to Nebraska, Obama hinted at his ultimate decision to delay the project and search for a new route, saying that polluted water would be an unacceptable price for added jobs.

?We need to make sure that we have energy security and aren?t just relying on Middle East sources,? Obama said in an interview with an Omaha TV station. ?But there?s a way of doing that and still making sure that the health and safety of the American people and folks in Nebraska are protected.?

The project is backed by labor unions and businesses and opposed by a bipartisan coalition of farmers, ranchers, and environmentalists. Those project?s critics pointed to TransCanada?s accident history and concerns that the process of removing crude oil from the Alberta tar sands would release much higher amounts of climate-changing carbon into the atmosphere than would other methods of pumping crude.

The delay "is a huge victory, and it would probably be the biggest environmental gift that President Barack Obama has given us," Reuters quoted Tony Iallonardo, a spokesman at the National Wildlife Federation, as saying Thursday.

Further clouding the Keystone XL project were allegations of conflicts of interest and other improprieties surrounding the permitting process, which was quarterbacked by the State Department, since the pipeline originates beyond the US border.

Responding to several media reports of alleged improprieties, the State Department inspector general said last week he was ordering an investigation into the process, The New York Times reported. One allegation is that TransCanada significantly influenced the choice of Cardno Enrix?to conduct the environmental impact assessment used by the State Department.?Cardno Enrix?lists TransCanada as a ?major client? on other projects.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/ypmjXsh1kKw/Keystone-XL-pipeline-delayed-Does-that-help-Obama

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